Increasing emission of air pollutants into the atmosphere modifies the radiation balance throughout the world, consequently modifies also the climate

NKFP –3A/0006/2002

Title of the Project:

Observed recent and expected near-future tendencies of climate in the Carpathian Basin, and their relations to regional conditions of the atmospheric environment

Short title:

Climate tendencies in the Carpathian Basin and their possible effect on the air quality

Summary of the project:

The increasing emission of air pollutants into the atmosphere modifies the radiation balance throughout the world, consequently it modifies also the climate. The reverse relationship enjoys much less interest: potential impacts of near future climate change on air quality in large towns.

The main aims of the planned research activity are:

→ to extent homogenisation methods aiming to filter the measurement errors from the data series on to the meteorological variables relevant in air quality control;

→ to give an exact description of the changes in the recent 50-100 years in the homogenised data series, especially for the variables relevant in air quality control;

→ to provide a new, more exact parameterisation of the known statistical relationships, relying on the homogenised meteorological data series and series of air quality measurements, as well as to assess the impacts of climate changes in the recent past on the air quality;

→ to improve the down scaling methods relying on up-to-date embedded dynamical models and meteorological field predictions, and to generate detailed regional climate change scenarios pre-estimating the variable values determining the transport processes in the atmosphere;

→ to predict the main characteristics of air quality both for rural areas and for Budapest taking into account the accumulated uncertainty from climate change prediction, applied methods and emission predictions;

→ to characterise the likely societal and economical impacts of climate change and air quality change, and to provide suggestions about recommendable actions for decision makers.

The results of the research activity will

•be included in the air quality standards as a source document for data base handling in the standardisation procedure;

•provide a more objective evaluation about the impact of the pollutant emission in Hungary and European countries on the air quality in the Carpathian Basin. These results may influence the optimal strategy of Hungary at the negotiations about joining the EU;

•provide a more exact description about local features of climate change giving new evidences for optimal strategy at international negotiations about climate protection;

The project started on July 2002 and will be end in 2005.

Partners involved in the project

Responsible person

Institute

Address

Dr. János Mika
(coordinator)

Hungarian Meteorological Service

1024 Budapest,
Kitaibel Pál u. 1.

Tel: +36-1-3464805
fax: +36-1-3464809
e-mail: mika.j@met.hu

Dr. Judit Bartholy

Department of Meteorology Eötvös Loránd University

1117 Budapest,
Pázmány P. sétány 1/a.

Tel: +36-1-20905555
fax: +36-1-3722904
e-mail:bari@ludens.elte.hu

Dr. Tamás Pálvölgyi

Env-in-Cent Consulting for Environment, Economics and Development

1126 Budapest,
Böszörményi u. 20-22.

Tel: +36-1-4570788
fax: +36-1-4570787
e-mail:tpalvolgyi@datanet.hu

Dr. László Szeidl

University of Pécs

7624 Pécs,
Ifjúság Útja 6.

Tel: +36-72-501527
fax: +36-72-501527
e-mail:szeidl@math.ttk.pte.hu